Kelix / Free tools
Prediction market odds calculator
Convert a prediction-market contract price into implied probability, American odds and decimal odds. Calculate the cost, payout and profit for $1 binary contracts before fees.
- Implied probability
- 60.00%
- Equivalent price
- 60.00¢
- American odds
- -150
- Decimal odds
- 1.6667
- Contract cost
- $60.00
- Total payout if correct
- $100.00
- Profit if correct
- $40.00
- Loss if incorrect
- $60.00
Before fees and execution costs. Assumes each contract pays $1 if correct and $0 otherwise. Implied probability is a price conversion, not a forecast.
What does a 60-cent contract mean?
A 60-cent contract that pays $1 if correct has a 60% break-even probability before fees. That equals −150 American odds or approximately 1.6667 decimal odds. Buying 100 contracts costs $60; a winning outcome returns $100 in total, for $40 profit before costs. A losing outcome loses the $60 paid.
The conversion formulas
For a price of c cents, implied probability p = c ÷ 100 and decimal odds = 1 ÷ p. For positive American odds A, p = 100 ÷ (A + 100). For negative American odds A, p = |A| ÷ (|A| + 100). These formulas convert the quoted price; they do not remove a sportsbook's margin.
How do fees change break-even probability?
If a $1 binary contract costs 60 cents plus a fixed 1-cent entry fee, the break-even probability becomes 61%. This example assumes no other charges and no fee contingent on the result. Actual fee schedules vary by platform, market and order type; this calculator leaves them out rather than guessing.
Compare probability with evidence
Market-implied probability can differ from an independent model forecast. Kelix Lines compares the two for supported sports matchups. Read our market comparison checklist before comparing quotes from different platforms.