Kelix / Lines
Kelix Lines: model probabilities beside market odds.
Kelix Lines simulates sports matchups 10,000 times and compares its estimated probabilities with available Kalshi, Polymarket and sportsbook prices. Lines is a free research tool.
What does the comparison show?
Choose a supported sport and two teams. Lines estimates a win probability, fair moneyline, projected spread and total, then shows available prices for the matchup. Coverage depends on loaded ratings, scheduled games and matched market data. A missing quote is missing data, not a zero probability.
How the model works
The model starts with opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace ratings. It applies available venue, travel and rest adjustments, then simulates possessions or drives with the league's overtime rules. College injury coverage is unavailable; player adjustments depend on the sport and data source. Simulations use a repeatable seed tied to the matchup and ratings version.
Model probability is not a market price
A contract priced at 60 cents has a simple 60% break-even probability before fees when it pays $1 on a win and $0 on a loss. A model estimate of 65% differs by five percentage points. That disagreement is a research question, not proof of a profitable trade: model error, spread, fees, liquidity and settlement rules still matter.
Convert cents, probabilities and moneyline odds, or read how to compare Kalshi and Polymarket prices.
Check the evidence
Review quote timestamps and stale-data labels. A midpoint may not be available to buy. Backtest metrics compare forecasts on historical games; they do not establish future performance. Lines does not place trades, and Kelix is independent of the exchanges and sportsbooks it displays.
Take a hypothesis into Lab
A single price difference is a starting point. Kelix Lab helps you develop repeatable strategy rules and test them after costs.